Steven Witkoff, Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin
Photo: Gavriil Grigorov, Ekaterina Chesnokova / RIA Novosti / Minval.az
The main news — namely another plan to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine — has already grown into some grandiose number of myths and conspiracy theories. My impression after reading this 28-point plan — is that it is just a translation from Russian. In any case, some points were definitely written in Russian and translated into English, probably by some automatic translator.
They only respect strength. If you start persuading them, trying to appease, offering some treats, they perceive it as weakness, as if you are not confident in yourself, as if you want to lure them into a trap
But then I remembered the famous long telegram by George Kennan, the US ambassador to Moscow in the 1940s, who, in response to his colleagues' question in Washington about why the Soviets refuse to sign some trade agreement that should also be beneficial to them, wrote a huge 20-page text. The main point was that Washington completely misunderstands the essence of Soviet power and how it is organized. The most important thing when dealing with the Soviets, Kennan wrote, is to understand that they only respect strength. They respect nothing else. If you start persuading them, trying to appease, offering some treats, they perceive it as weakness, as if you are not confident in yourself, as if you want to lure them into a trap. The culture of negotiations, attempts to understand the opponent's point of view, which is completely natural for the Western tradition, did not exist in the Soviet Union. The Bolsheviks, Stalin, Molotov, and all the others lived precisely in this paradigm: to press, to break over the knee, to blackmail, and so on. Therefore, George Kennan wrote that constant pressure on the opponent is very important. No need to offer any friendship, they will not accept it.
Only pressure
In today's Washington, and not only in today's, it was the same under Joseph Biden and Barack Obama (before Obama learned that Russian spies had infiltrated election headquarters in 47 US states) there is a notion that one should talk to Putin, stroke his head. This is how Europe learned to talk to Trump: you need to constantly tell Trump how great he is, and then everything will be okay. With Putin, this is a completely useless endeavor, these guys, as George Kennan wrote, only respect strength. That's when they are ready to talk. When Trump imposed sanctions against «Rosneft» and «Lukoil» and the price of Russian oil periodically fell below $40 per barrel — this is the kind of conversation Putin and his company understand. When Trump said that maybe he would give Ukraine «Tomahawks», which could easily reach Moscow, Valdai, and all other Putin's residences (although everyone in the States understood that he would not give any «Tomahawks»), Putin and his guys took it seriously and immediately sent Kirill Dmitriev to discuss business with the Americans. And Trump, in accordance with what he wrote in his book «The Art of the Deal», believes that simple maneuvers can achieve the desired behavior from Putin. Trump and many of his advisers completely do not understand that talking to the KGB like this is absolutely useless. Putin respects strength. The restalinization that is happening throughout Russia is a reflection of Putin's views. Now there is no need for mass gulags, because there is no need for free slave labor, but to «roll into asphalt», «cut off so it doesn't grow», to make «eat dust» — is a must. Remember all these wonderful jokes of Putin's times when he was still himself until he was called «the only European» in Russia and began to create a respectable image for the West, which the West immediately loved. Especially when he posed with a bare torso. The fact that the jokes — is a very accurate reflection of Putin's nature and the KGB culture of bending, breaking over the knee, was not understood in Washington.
The main and tragic mistake of Biden was that he believed that if Putin threatens to hit with nuclear weapons, then you need to be afraid and immediately work back. By doing so, Biden showed Putin how much he fears him. In this situation, the only correct behavior for the KGB — is a fist thrown forward. Do not retreat, continue to press. And the fact that the war in Ukraine has dragged on for 4 years is largely the result of Biden's tragic mistake. He sat all his life in the Foreign Affairs Committee of Congress, but never understood who he was dealing with.
Real guy
In fact, the attempt at the so-called reset, when Obama came, was exactly the same mistake. «Let's try to negotiate with Putin». Obama flies to Moscow, meets with President Medvedev, but necessarily — a meeting with Putin. Putin talks to him the way they are used to talking about Barack Obama among themselves, and they spoke exclusively in racist categories. This was told by former ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul, who was present at the time. And until Kremlin hackers (and these were, by the way, largely Prigozhin's people) climbed into the computers of the United States election headquarters, until that moment Obama did not take Putin seriously, spoke of him as the leader of a regional power. Then Putin got involved in the war in Syria to prove to Obama that Russia is not a regional power, and he is a real guy, and he will show everyone now. And he showed, by the way.
And finally, Obama met with Putin on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, somewhere in the corridor, and harshly told him: stop meddling in our election computers. Russia tried to influence the elections in this way. They poorly, of course, understood how it was done, but nevertheless climbed in. There was a famous story in 2019 when almost a thousand FSB agents sat in different cities of America, infiltrating all possible systems of «Amazon», «Microsoft», and so on. It was a cold shower.
In American foreign policy, they constantly step on the same rake when dealing with Putin and his entourage
Returning to our topic, I will say that the notorious 28 points are a reflection of an extremely, on the one hand, primitive, and on the other hand, strange approach. Strange for a country where very strong specialists in Eastern Europe and Russia work, and where many departments of different universities study Russian history, Russian literature, Russian politics, and therefore Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. And it is simply amazing to what extent in American foreign policy constantly, for the last 25 years, they step on the same rake when dealing with Putin's guys.
The first to step on the rake, I remember, was Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State in the administration of George W. Bush. When Russia during the Russian-Georgian war almost reached Tbilisi, stopped 150 kilometers from the capital of Georgia, the Americans threatened with sanctions, the American squadron entered the Black Sea, and it all ended there. Three months later, everyone forgot about the sanctions, and Putin perfectly understood that with these guys, with the Americans, he can do whatever he wants. In other words, those who deal with Putin and his guys today need to reread George Kennan's telegram. It has not lost its relevance.
How to survive a big winter
Let's return to this amazing plan. Everything indicates that it was written by Witkoff and Dmitriev. For many, even in the White House, it was such a surprise-surprise. In fact, Trump did not even hide it, and when journalists asked him if this plan was final, he answered verbatim: «Don't believe what you see». «But something good may come out», — said Trump. In Truth Social he wrote that the plan is not final, «we are just trying to put an end to it», meaning the war in Ukraine and how Putin is destroying infrastructure, including the energy infrastructure of Ukrainian cities. Volodymyr Zelensky spoke about how difficult it will be to survive this winter for this reason. When there are endless bombings of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other cities of Ukraine, it is simply physically impossible to quickly restore the destroyed. And of course, Putin uses this.
Russia is the aggressor, the destroyer of Ukraine, the occupier. And Russia is trying to dictate to Ukraine what army it can have. Ukraine is required to have no foreign troops on its territory, not to join NATO, and so on.
Kushner and Witkoff's work on the Middle East ended with the signing of a peace treaty and the cessation of the war in Gaza. It was brilliant work, and God sees, Trump can be given two Nobel Prizes for this. But this 28-point plan reflects a complete misunderstanding by American diplomats of what the Russian side is proposing. And the Russian side offers them to turn Ukraine into something like East Germany, where there was some sovereignty, at least on paper, but at the same time, all major decisions were made by the occupying forces. In the first 15-20 years after the war, Soviet power roamed East Germany as it pleased, and it was at least understandable why: the war had just ended, the Soviet Union, and primarily Belarus, Ukraine, and the European part of the Russian Federation were in ruins, the USSR lost 27 million people.
But here it is completely different: Russia is the aggressor, the destroyer of Ukraine, the occupier. And Russia is trying to dictate to Ukraine what army it can have. Ukraine is required to have no foreign troops on its territory. Ukraine is required to exclude from its constitution the point that it joins NATO. Ukraine is required to hold presidential elections 100 days after the signing of the treaty. In other words, we will tell you how to live, dear Ukrainians, because otherwise, we will kill you — this runs like a red thread through the entire plan.
And the Europeans were alarmed. The head of the European Union spoke and said that without Ukraine and without Europe, no peace plan can be drawn up and cannot be signed.
Trump does not contradict this. Trump understands perfectly well, he already understood perfectly well after Alaska that Putin is leading him by the nose. But since he really wants a peace treaty to be signed finally and he could say that he stopped not only the war in the Middle East but also the war in Europe, when he was presented with this plan, he decided: maybe it makes some sense. Zelensky must fly to Washington. The Europeans understand perfectly well that without their help, Ukraine will not survive. And indeed, Europe is now not only subsidizing the Ukrainian economy but also paying the United States for the supply of weapons. And it seems that another agreement was just signed, according to which $150 million worth of weapons went to Ukraine from the United States, which was paid or will be paid by Europe. And as we already know, Trump abandoned Biden's practice of telling Ukrainians which missiles they can use at what range.
But at the same time, the Europeans are completely not ready to send their peacekeepers, let's call it that, their soldiers, their officers to Ukraine. Therefore, Europe's position looks extremely strange. You help Ukraine a lot, but you offer Ukrainians to continue defending all of Europe alone from further invasion by Putin's bandits. I have no doubt that Putin has not yet invaded either Finland or Poland or the Baltic countries solely because he does not have the strength to fight on several fronts. Although in recent weeks it is clear that Putin, against the backdrop of this next «peace plan», has ordered to advance as much as possible, capturing villages, towns, and cities in the Donetsk region.
Divided Ukraine?
Everyone understands perfectly well, both Americans and Europeans, that the Ukrainian army lacks people. Russian troops can simply seep into those gaps that are not closed on the front line. In fact, this was said by Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine. He said — we do not have the strength to return everything. In other words, the leaders of Ukraine understand perfectly well that they will have to agree to the option that exists today, for example, in Cyprus, where there is a northern part captured by Turkey, and Greek Cyprus. No one diplomatically recognizes Northern Cyprus, but in reality, it exists. Obviously, Zelensky, when he says that Ukraine does not have the strength to return the occupied lands, understands that this conflict will have to be frozen along the line of contact. And the biggest stumbling block, around which fierce disputes will go, is how the dividing line will pass and how to ensure guarantees that Russia will not attack again.
The primacy of strength demonstrated by Putin makes it completely impossible to sign a peace treaty
You cannot trust Russia while Putin is alive, while a corporation of people who only respect strength is in power, who believe that only Russia is «great», and everyone else should lick its boots. The regime that exists in Russia today is fascism. It is a corporate regime, completely closed, militarized, whose entire ideology is built on strength. On strength both inside the country — we will imprison anyone, there are already more than 1500 political prisoners in Russia, this is eight to nine times more than it was under Brezhnev — and in foreign policy. We just see it: drones without identification marks flying over Denmark, over Estonia, over Poland, flying over European airports; terrorist acts on railways; parcels with explosives that are periodically intercepted, and so on. This is a demonstration: we do it because we can. Exactly as Adolf Hitler said: it is a question of strength, not right. This is exactly what Putin demonstrates. He does not care about borders, sovereignty, or international law. He endlessly violates borders, violates airspace, his terrorists operate in different cities in Europe. The primacy of strength demonstrated by Putin makes it completely impossible to sign a peace treaty.
It is also obvious — Ukraine needs peacekeeping forces. If Ukraine agrees to freeze the conflict along the line of contact, blue helmets should stand there. At least European ones. But we see that Macron promises, Mertz promises, but nothing happens.
What is positive in the plan, from my point of view? The fact that Ukraine is offered a roadmap for joining the European Union. It is clear that this will not happen immediately, nevertheless, it is very important. Second — the United States gives Ukraine security guarantees. Given that Trump is unlikely to go for a second term, that in the midterm elections his party will most likely lose, and control at least over the lower house will pass to the Democrats, this means that Trump does not take on any obligations.
A very important point about investments in Ukraine, but this is actually what was signed in the deal on rare earth elements, according to which the United States receives almost 50% of the development of rare earth elements on the territory of Ukraine. The reserves there are theoretically worth half a trillion dollars. How much in reality, how much extraction will cost, what the costs will be, no one knows yet. But, nevertheless, this is a very important agreement because it guarantees some investments. In this sense, there is nothing new in the plan.
As for the ban on joining NATO (refusal and exclusion of this article from the Constitution of Ukraine), Zelensky has already spoken about this: «Ukraine is not invited to NATO and is not taken, so there is nothing to talk about». In other words, Zelensky is ready for this.
My interlocutors in Washington say that such a plan has been circulating for at least six months, and Witkoff and Dmitriev revived it. It is also obvious that Russia will retain control over the occupied territories. And while Putin is alive, while the corporation of KGB officers does not leave power, it is not yet possible to count on Ukraine returning Donbas, Crimea, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Putin understands well that the Europeans are very radical in their rhetoric, they wave their hands a lot. But when it comes to real actions, the successes are more modest
Russia demanded Ukraine's refusal of eurointegration, but the European Union is ready to provide a roadmap for joining, and it is obvious that this point will be excluded. Although Putin understands well that the Europeans are very radical in their rhetoric, they wave their hands a lot. But when it comes to real actions, the successes are more modest. Yes, of course, now Europe pays for the weapons supplied by the United States, obviously pays for the provision of intelligence data by the United States. Europe cannot do this itself, the United States and their satellites are absolutely necessary for it. Nevertheless, I would not rush too much with talks about Ukraine's acceptance into the European Union.
There is another topic that is much discussed — the corruption scandal in the case of «Atomenergomash», which involves many high-ranking Ukrainian officials. Everyone is now trying to understand how high the «kickback» scheme reaches and what will follow. Some people have already been arrested, some have fled the country, some have lost their positions. Nevertheless, it is scary to think that in a warring country experiencing incredible difficulties, including financial ones, it is possible to afford to steal tens of millions. During the war, there is always someone who profits from it, history is full of such examples, but this does not reconcile with the wild corruption that was known before and especially became known now.
What can Zelensky
There are several questions that are asked in connection with the current dramatic situation in Ukraine. First of all, about Zelensky's powers to make decisions regarding the conditions for ending the war. In Ukraine, there is a presidential-parliamentary republic, the transition to a parliamentary republic was not completed, so the president is the head of the executive branch, which has now taken over the other branches of power in Ukraine. I think this is practically inevitable in wartime conditions. Volodymyr Zelensky has become the face of Ukraine. He is known everywhere, he is accepted everywhere, his courage is admired in different countries of the world. He is, of course, a talented public politician and a very strong and courageous person. This is obvious even to his opponents and fierce adversaries. So first of all, the heaviest responsibility for the decision to leave the occupied lands under Russian control will fall on his shoulders. And we know what happened in Bucha, in Mariupol, in other occupied villages and towns of Ukraine. The Rada, of course, will have to ratify the treaty when and if it is signed, but the decision will be made by the president, and all responsibility, first of all, will fall on Zelensky's shoulders.
Putin needs a truce like air. He needs a break to somehow solve the growing problems in the Russian economy
There is a question about Russia's demand to make the Russian language the second official language in Ukraine along with Ukrainian. Ukraine responds that it will take on those obligations that exist in the European Union regarding minorities, regarding language, protection of religious, ethnic, and racial minorities — a principle that exists in Europe.
How do they react in Moscow to the «Trump plan»? About this writes in another column on the NT website Andrey Kolesnikov (The New Times). According to his observations, also without much enthusiasm. But I know that people in Moscow are very interested in how real it is because everyone is tired of the war. Life in Moscow has become very expensive. My Israeli friends, who have the opportunity to fly to Moscow, say that life in Moscow used to be significantly cheaper than in Israel, and now prices have leveled, in Moscow in some ways have even become higher than in Israel. They also say that there are big problems with 5G stations across the country, the existing 5G stations are being moved from the regions to Moscow, where the entire Russian nomenclature and the entire KGB fraternity live, who are used to having everything convenient and comfortable. But in other regions, old stations are being installed, which are going out of order, and therefore the internet is endlessly dropping there.
It is quite obvious that Putin needs a truce like air, at least to steal or illegally import into Russia all sorts of chips that Russia still does not produce and which have to be delivered through Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and other points from China and Southeast Asian countries. And without them, neither «Iskanders» nor «Kalibrs» will fly.
Putin needs a war freeze, needs a break. This is exactly what he is now striving for, and this is exactly why such efforts are being made, which is why Dmitriev and Witkoff introduced their 28-point plan into the public domain. And it is already known that this plan leaked to the American online publication Axios from Kirill Dmitriev. This once again shows how interested Putin is in getting a break and somehow solving the growing problems in the Russian economy.
Video version
* Yevgenia Albats is declared a «foreign agent» in Russia.