«In the blink of an eye, the young cucumber
Looked out of the bowl, like a little frog».
David Samoylov, «Guest at the Tsyganovs», 1972
Cucumbers, whose prices have risen by an average of 50% since the end of December, and in some cases doubled, and the suppressed (not completely) Telegram have become symbols of the beginning of the year, concluding the four-year Special Military Operation.
Although there are many such symbols: the increasing budget deficit, the lack of investment dynamics (complete calm), bankrupt small businesses, and the state's attempts to extract money from the population at any cost and by the most exotic methods (they shyly call it «whitening the economy»), and the collapse or stagnation of production in most sectors, and the consolidation of the unproductive structure of the economy — and you can't spread a tank with «Oreshnik» on bread. And endless lies combined with silences, clearly pointing to the pain points in the socio-economic situation — from discussions about «controlled cooling of the economy» (Mishustin's government is cooler than the USSR State Planning Committee) to Rosstat closing data on salaries of state and municipal employees, doctors, teachers, educators, lecturers, scientific workers... The situation with utility bills, the figures on which have doubled, the Kremlin «monitors». What a good job...
This kind of state solipsism — we will close our eyes to ourselves and society so as not to see anything, and everything will immediately become fine. Although it is clear to a senior kindergarten child: what the state hides is the real problem. As it is obvious to a first-year economics student: the more the state increases the tax burden, the less money it will ultimately receive, the wider the shadow sector and the use of cash transactions will be, the higher and more stable inflation will be. However, soon a group of comrades will finish writing a unified textbook on the political economy of Putinism, and then first-year students will no longer know all these liberal nonsense in the form of the iron laws of economics, all these Laffer and Phillips curves.
Stabilization of Instability
Twice in the last ten years, the president's ratings have experienced significant declines — during the pension reform period and the pandemic. Of course, expansionism and jingoism each time lifted all the rating boats. But there was also a period of stagnation, coinciding with the first steps towards artificially detaching Russia from the West and, accordingly, with significant economic problems after the Crimean campaign (for example, real disposable incomes practically did not grow).
The stagnation period ended with the start of the Special Military Operation, and a powerful budget impulse, as expected, gave the economy growth, which, according to the same liberal theories, naturally began to fade. Stagnation returned. What people need for life did not grow (and continues not to grow). Demand for normal market-traded goods remained high, supply low («finally, we will learn to produce our own» — this does not work), the «raw material appendage of the West» successfully requalified as the «raw material appendage of China» — and it turned out that such dependence is much less effective. It turns out that the lion's share of direct foreign investments, as well as trade operations, came from Europe. Strange, it seems they wanted to attack and dismember us...
Is the stabilization of instability, chronic inflation coupled with shrinkflation (the same price, less mass) and stagnation of many sectors and industries a reason for decreasing approval of the authorities? As well as the restriction of communication freedoms of Russians — by no means liberals and democrats. Whoever hasn't understood yet — the bell tolls not only for the opponents of the authorities but for everyone; the attack is not only on political but also on everyday rights, too, the regime has no reverse gear.
So far, as in all recent years, the population responds with adaptation or submission. Sometimes it is the same thing, as in the case of the messenger Max, which has become the same symbol and indicator of social behavior and well-being as cucumbers (which, of course, will be replaced from the point of view of a price jump by some other product). Only some sharp movement can bring the broad masses out of anabiosis.
Blocking messengers is hardly considered such, because blockages have been going on for all four years, they have already become routine and new normal, there is time to get used to and prepare for new restrictions and find a replacement for communication means.
Although the story with the promotion of Max — with about the same energy as big state bosses arrange high positions for their sons — almost returned elements of politics to the information field. In any case, it has been a long time since the head of an entire parliamentary faction called an important, now practically law enforcement, agency Roskomnadzor and its representatives «idiots». The word is apt in the sense that a huge layer of regime propaganda is held on Z‑channels in Telegram, as well as correspondence and group chats — slowing down the messenger greatly irritates the «patriotic» public. And although the command «stand down» with blocking Telegram has not yet been received, at the top, of course, they are thinking about whether all these actions undermine the legitimacy of the authorities in the eyes of the social support of the regime. For now, the death of WhatsApp’a** and the sharply intensified fight against VPN are proceeding on their own — at least free versions stop working altogether.
«Post-Special Operation» Period
Nevertheless, let us repeat, so far all these factors do not undermine the stability of the regime and do not bring the notorious majority out of its «burrow» state and «fetal position» — I see nothing, hear nothing, leave me alone, I am a good patriot and support everything.
«Special operation» state has become a «natural» environment and a habitual way of life, as all ideological mantras, handed down from above, including undisguised misanthropy supported by television stars, have been learned. In any case, the deliberate freezing of people in a neighboring country has become part of the state-approved and fiercely broadcast discourse. Even four years ago, this was impossible to imagine, it was a common place to assert that Russia does not fight with civilians. Now this is not the case, as confirmed by the words, facial expressions, and gestures of the main propagandists. But the degree of protective indifference of the «burrow» part of the population is such that even these immoral verbal interventions of Kiselyov-Solovyov are perceived as part of the new norm.
«Security interests» and «protection of citizens» have become a universal verbal shell of everyday existence. After all, Telegram is also being canceled based on the high principle of «protection of citizens». Protection from their rights and freedoms enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation. To such an extent flammable that their use is categorically prohibited (and even punished) in the interests of the citizens themselves. More precisely, already subjects.
The system can be sharply shaken by the end of hostilities and the return of giant masses of people from the trenches. The budget, labor market, social sphere, healthcare, education, law enforcement system will, to put it delicately, experience overloads. There is no experience of adapting a huge mass of people transitioning from military to civilian life (the period after 1945 is different, primarily psychologically, and the proxy wars of the USSR, the Afghan and Chechen campaigns are incomparable in scale with the current situation).
The regime will press the pedal of fighting internal enemies and the lever of ideological indoctrination of the population, but it is impossible to predict the effectiveness of these actions. The Putin regime would remain stable without the Special Military Operation. But its consequences are capable of undermining the «legitimacy» based on the dizzying and vestibular apparatus-spoiling rally around the flag. The adaptive resources of the pro-Kremlin majority may be enough for the «post-special operation» period. But something essential will be lost. New problems are ahead. It will be difficult to get away with lowering cucumber prices and «convenient» Max messenger services.
* The Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation considers Andrey Kolesnikov a «foreign agent».
** The messenger WhatsApp belongs to the company Meta, recognized in the Russian Federation as an extremist organization and banned.
Photo: The New Times.